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Monday, 8 September 2014

Islamic banks face challenge from Basel III deposit regulations

As banks around the world gear up to meet tough Basel III regulatory standards, Islamic lenders face a source of uncertainty that could prove expensive for them: how regulators will treat their deposits.
In most ways, Islamic banks look well-placed to cope with Basel III, which will be phased in across the globe over the next few years. Most of the banks are from the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia, where economies are strong.
Since Islamic finance frowns on monetary speculation, their balance sheets are largely clear of the derivatives and complex, risky assets that sunk some of their conventional peers during the global financial crisis. They should therefore have little trouble in meeting Basel III's minimum capital standards.
But their deposit bases could become a headache. Because interest payments are not allowed by sharia principles, Islamic banks obtain deposits mostly through profit-sharing investment accounts (PSIAs), which are considered to be more volatile than conventional deposits.
Islamic banks are expected to be required to offset that volatility under Basel III by increasing the amount of high-quality liquid assets (HQLAs) they hold. But Islamic securities markets are younger, shallower and less developed so sharia-compliant HQLAs are in short supply - squeezing banks on two fronts.
"These are two of the more important challenges that Basel III is introducing to the Islamic finance industry," said Paris-based Mohamed Damak, primary credit analyst at credit rating agency Standard & Poor's.
Islamic commercial banks held about US$1.2 trillion worth of assets at the end of last year, according to Thomson Reuters. They account for roughly a quarter of deposits in Gulf Arab countries and over a fifth in Malaysia.
Basel III requires banks to hold enough HQLAs to cover net cash outflows for a 30-day period under a high-stress scenario. Outflows are calculated by applying different weights to funding sources, including PSIAs. The riskier the funding source, the larger the amount of HQLAs needed to cover it.
So a lot will depend on the weights or "run-off rates" which national regulators around the world, who will implement Basel III in their own jurisdictions, choose to assign to PSIAs.
Regulators have yet to give an indication of the likely weights. They are keen to develop their Islamic banking sectors, so they are unlikely to assign punitive weights. But they may not be able to treat PSIAs as benignly as conventional bank deposits.
The treatment of PSIAs will also depend on factors specific to the Islamic banking industry in each country, such as how it behaved in past stress situations, and the track record of Islamic banks in passing losses on to deposit holders under their contracts, Damak said. The uncertainty looks unlikely to be cleared up at least until early next year, when the Malaysia-based Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB), a global standard-setting body, is expected to release a guidance note on the subject.
"Ultimately it is the regulator in each country that will decide what will be the treatment of PSIAs, and here the IFSB guidance note will be of significant value to help regulators decide how to treat PSIAs," Damak said.
(South China Morning Post Business / 08 September / 2014)
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Thursday, 4 September 2014

World Bank eyes up to $500 mln via immunisation sukuk -official

(Reuters) - The World Bank plans to raise as much as $500 million worth of Islamic bonds, or sukuk, this year to help fund an immunisation programme, one of several initiatives from the multilateral body in the Islamic finance sector.
The World Bank, acting as treasurer of the International Finance Facility for Immunisation (IFFIm), would help issue the sukuk, said Michael Bennett, head of derivatives and structured finance at the World Bank's treasury department.
IFFIm has previously raised money from retail investors in markets such as Australia and Japan through so-called "kangaroo" and "uridahsi" bonds. It could soon add sukuk to the lexicon of vaccine financing.
"Right now we're thinking $300 million to $500 million, we are still talking to the market on what the right size should be," said Bennett on the sidelines of an industry conference.
The World Bank has hired Standard Chartered and National Bank of Abu Dhabi to arrange the transaction, which could happen as early as this month although a specific timeframe has yet to be finalised, said Bennett.
"We've been having investor conversations in the Gulf, Malaysia and tomorrow it will be Brunei."
IFFIm, rated AA by Standard & Poor's, is backed by nine countries including France and Britain, it issues bonds designed to roll forward future donor pledges into cash-in-hand today to finance its immunisation efforts.
Since 2006, IFFIm has raised $4.5 billion through bonds, its last issuance was a $700 million bond in June of last year.
Because those pledges are not interest-based, they could be used to structure a sukuk, which follow religious principles such as bans on charging interest and pure monetary speculation.
SCOPE
The World Bank has been engaged in Islamic finance for years and its private lending arm, the International Finance Corp. , is also considering a return to the sukuk market.
Other units like the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) are limited in their direct use of sukuk to fund projects.
But the World Bank is increasingly considering using sukuk in other ways, such as adapting them to be used as "green bonds" to fund projects to increase energy efficiency and expand use of renewable energy.
IBRD is now advising the Dubai government on developing a funding strategy for the emirate's green investment programme, which could include sukuk, said Bennett.
"This likely will require raising funds in a variety of different ways - with green sukuk being just one of the options being considered."
This could help close the gap between ethical and Islamic investing, two sectors which have largely developed independently from each other.
Western institutional investors such as pensions have long favoured green bonds, while investors in the Middle East and southeast Asia require sharia-compliant alternatives to interest-bearing debt.
In the long term, the World Bank is also exploring partial credit guarantees to be used for sovereign sukuk issues, said Bennett.

The World Bank, through IBRD, offers partial guarantees to sovereigns, their agencies and other state-owned entities; Such a programme could be used to help developing countries that have struggled to tap the sukuk market in the past.
(Reuters / 03 September 2014)
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Alfalah Consulting - Kuala Lumpur: www.alfalahconsulting.com
Islamic Investment Malaysia: www.islamic-invest-malaysia.com

Basel III deposit challenge looms over Islamic banks

(Reuters) - As banks around the world gear up to meet tough Basel III regulatory standards, Islamic lenders face a source of uncertainty that could prove expensive for them: how regulators will treat their deposits.
In most ways, Islamic banks look well-placed to cope with Basel III, which will be phased in across the globe over the next few years. Most of the banks are from the Gulf and southeast Asia, where economies are strong.
Since Islamic finance frowns on monetary speculation, their balance sheets are largely clear of the derivatives and complex, risky assets that sunk some of their conventional peers during the global financial crisis. They should therefore have little trouble in meeting Basel III's minimum capital standards.
But their deposit bases could become a headache. Because interest payments are not allowed by sharia principles, Islamic banks obtain deposits mostly through profit-sharing investment accounts (PSIAs), which are generally considered to be more volatile than conventional deposits.
Islamic banks are expected to be required to offset that volatility under Basel III by increasing the amount of high-quality liquid assets (HQLAs) which they hold.
But Islamic securities markets are much younger, shallower and less developed than conventional markets, so sharia-compliant HQLAs are in short supply - squeezing Islamic banks on two fronts.
"These are two of the more important challenges that Basel III is introducing to the Islamic finance industry," said Paris-based Mohamed Damak, primary credit analyst at credit rating agency Standard & Poor's.
WEIGHTS
Islamic commercial banks held about $1.2 trillion worth of assets at the end of last year, according to a study by Thomson Reuters. They account for roughly a quarter of deposits in Gulf Arab countries and over a fifth in Malaysia.
Basel III requires banks to hold enough HQLAs to cover net cash outflows for a 30-day period under a high-stress scenario. Outflows are calculated by applying different weights to funding sources, including PSIAs. The riskier the funding source, the larger the amount of HQLAs needed to cover it.
So a lot will depend on the weights or "run-off rates" which national regulators around the world, who will implement Basel III in their own jurisdictions, choose to assign to PSIAs.
Regulators have yet to give an indication of the likely weights. They are keen to develop their Islamic banking sectors, so they are unlikely to assign punitive weights. But they may not be able to treat PSIAs as benignly as conventional bank deposits. For instance, PSIAs held by Islamic banks tend to have relatively short maturities, according to an S&P report.
The treatment of PSIAs will also depend on factors specific to the Islamic banking industry in each country, such as how it behaved in past stress situations, and the track record of Islamic banks in passing losses on to deposit holders under their contracts, Damak said.
The uncertainty looks unlikely to be cleared up at least until early next year, when the Malaysia-based Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB), a global standard-setting body, is expected to release a guidance note on the subject.
"Ultimately it is the regulator in each country that will decide what will be the treatment of PSIAs, and here the IFSB guidance note will be of significant value to help regulators decide how to treat PSIAs," Damak said.
The note will deal with issues such as the contractual rights of depositors, for example whether they can withdraw money in fewer than 30 days without a significant penalty, said a source familiar with the IFSB's deliberations.
Malaysia's central bank has issued some guidance on PSIAs, saying it will classify them as two types: general PSIAs, broadly equivalent to conventional retail deposits, and specific or restricted PSIAs, deemed similar to managed investment accounts. It has given Islamic banks a two-year transition period to differentiate between those types.
But while the central bank has already spelled out ratios and weights for Basel III capital adequacy rules, it has not yet announced run-off rates or HQLA requirements for PSIAs. Commercial bankers think these might be revealed early next year, after the IFSB guidance.
Basel III says national regulators around the world could assign run-off rates of 3 percent or higher to stable, conventional bank deposits, and as much as 10 percent to less stable deposits, according to S&P.
Most Islamic banks may end up being assigned numbers within that range; given the size of the deposits at stake, a variation of several percentage points could make a big difference to how much HQLAs the banks are forced to hold.
ASSETS
The PSIA issue may increase pressure on central banks and governments around the Islamic world to address some longstanding problems in Islamic finance.
One is the small supply of HQLAs. With the exception of Malaysia and Bahrain, few central banks actively issue instruments which qualify as HQLAs, Damak said.
Government-issued sukuk qualify, but most sovereign sukuk are either not listed on developed markets or are not actively traded, making it very hard for Islamic banks to obtain them. This contrasts with conventional banks' access to huge markets in high-quality government debt such as U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds.
Alternatives such as the short-term sukuk issued by the Malaysia-based International Islamic Liquidity Management Corp, which was established to promote a cross-border market in Islamic instruments, remain small compared with the overall size of the industry, Damak noted.
As part of its efforts to develop as an Islamic financial center, Dubai is actively trying to list sukuk on its exchanges and encouraging its state-linked firms to issue tradeable sukuk, but it may be years before supply begins to meet demand.
Another problem is deposit insurance. For bank deposits to be deemed stable they need to be protected by an insurance scheme, but sharia-compliant schemes are rare, partly because government support for domestic banks is considered implicit in many Gulf countries.
Bahrain introduced Islamic deposit insurance in 1993. In May this year, Qatar said it would develop an Islamic deposit insurance scheme. In June, Bangladesh said Islamic deposits would be covered under an existing scheme managed by the central bank.

"It will be harder for Islamic banks, in respect of run-off factors for PSIA, but there are solutions or mitigants as the example of Qatar illustrates," said the source familiar with the IFSB's deliberations.
(Reuters / 02 September 2014)
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Alfalah Consulting - Kuala Lumpur: www.alfalahconsulting.com
Islamic Investment Malaysia: www.islamic-invest-malaysia.com

Wednesday, 3 September 2014

Indonesia Markets 10-Year Dollar Sukuk at Two-Year Low Yield

Indonesia is marketing its annual sale of dollar-denominated Islamic bonds at the lowest yield since 2012 amid optimism President-elect Joko Widodo will reduce fuel subsidies and cut red tape.
The country is offering a benchmark-sized sale of Shariah-compliant debt due in 10 years at an initial guidance of about 4.625 percent, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named as the information is private. That compares with the 6.125 percent yield the government paid on notes maturing in 5.5 years in 2013 and the record-low 3.3 percent rate on 10-year sukuk sold the previous year. A benchmark-sized offer is commonly at least $500 million.
The Constitutional Court rejected an appeal disputing the election result on Aug. 21, clearing the way for Widodo, known as Jokowi, to take power in October. Bank Indonesia has added $11.2 billion to its foreign-currency holdings this year as the rupiah rallied 3.6 percent to lead gains in Asia. That’s a far cry from 2013’s 21 percent plunge in the currency, which prompted officials to “compromise” and accept higher yields at the last dollar sukuk sale to bolster reserves.
“Indonesia can afford to offer a lower yield as the macro picture is much better,” Akbar Syarief,fund manager at PT MNC Asset Management in Jakarta, which oversees more than $200 million, said by phone today. “We think that fuel subsidies will be cut, which would be a positive. It’s only a matter of when and by how much.”

Falling Yields

The yield on the nation’s 3.3 percent Islamic dollar notes due November 2022 dropped 32 basis points this quarter to 4.16 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That compares with a 25 basis point decline to 2.85 percent for similar-maturity Malaysian sovereign sukuk. The yield on the Indonesia’s non-Islamic dollar debt due January 2024 has dropped 41 basis points this quarter to 4.12 percent.
Jokowi said he is committed to reducing fuel subsidies that account for 14 percent of the proposed 2015 budget, after President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono rebuffed his request to revise the spending last week.
Indonesia plans to sell sovereign bonds denominated in dollars, euros and yen next year to meet a record gross debt issuance target of 459 trillion rupiah ($39 billion), Robert Pakpahan, director general at the finance ministry’s debt management office in Jakarta, said in an interview yesterday. That’s 13 percent higher than this year’s goal.

Improving Confidence

Moody’s Investors Service ranks Indonesian government notes at Baa3, its lowest investment grade. Although the country has a small public debt burden, its low gross domestic product per capita and the high proportion of its debt owned by foreigners make it susceptible to external risks, Moody’s said in an Aug. 19 statement. Fitch Ratings also assigns Indonesia its top investment grade, while Standard & Poor’s rates the nation at its top junk level.
Investor confidence in Indonesia has improved after Jokowi secured victory in the July 9 presidential election. As governor of Jakarta since 2012, he has restarted stalled transport projects, increased tax revenue by moving collection online and dismissed senior officials for poor performance.
The cost to insure the nation’s debt against non-payment using five-year credit-default swaps slid 27 basis points this quarter to 133 basis points, according to data provider CMA. That compares with Thailand’s 25 basis point drop to 86.
“The numbers are more favorable for Indonesia this year,” Priyo Santoso, chief investment officer at PT Mandiri Manajemen Investasi, which oversees more than $2 billion in assets, said in an interview in Jakarta last week. “Investors see that Indonesia’s political risk has subsided, so that’s followed by a falling risk premium on the yield.”

Growing Interest

Indonesia’s government hired Standard Chartered Plc, HSBC Holdings Plc, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd. and Emirates NBD PJSC to arrange the sale, the debt office’s Pakpahan said in May.
The average yield on dollar-denominated sukuk fell eight basis points this quarter to 2.78 percent on Aug. 29, a Deutsche Bank AG index shows. That compares with the five basis point climb to 5.37 percent for the average yield on emerging-market sovereign debt, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. gauge.
Hong Kong and Luxembourg are set to follow the U.K. in selling bonds that pay returns on assets to comply with Islam’s ban on interest this year. Indonesia’s offer “reflects the growing interest in Islamic finance as a source of sovereign funding,” Khalid Howladar, global head of Islamic finance at Moody’s in Dubai, said in last month’s statement.
(Bloomberg / 02 September 2014)
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Islamic finance seeks to go green with environment-based products

Financial products based on renewable energy and sustainable agriculture are emerging in Islamic finance as asset managers seek a crossover opportunity between ethical and sharia-compliant investing.
Islamic finance follows religious principles which forbid involvement in activities such as gambling, tobacco and alcohol, but the industry has only recently begun to stress themes of wider social responsibility, such as protecting the environment.
Last week, Malaysia announced guidelines for issuance of socially responsible sukuk (Islamic bonds), aimed at helping firms raise money for projects ranging from renewable energy to affordable housing.
In April the Dubai Supreme Council of Energy, a government planning body, and the World Bank signed an agreement to develop funding for the emirate's green investment programme, including "green" Islamic bonds. Dubai aims to derive 5 percent of its energy from sustainable sources and retrofit buildings to reduce energy consumption.
Meanwhile, firms in Britain, Canada and Hong Kong are offering sharia-compliant investments in sustainable farming ventures, which may attract money from Islamic investors in the Gulf and southeast Asia as well as from local investors.
The reasoning is that green investment products can tap a wider range of demand if they are made sharia-compliant to appeal to Muslims. At the same time, non-Muslims who might normally shy away from Islamic investments - because of concerns about pricing, complexity and lack of familiarity - may embrace them if they are green.
DISTRIBUTION
It is not yet clear how much success these efforts will have. In past years, Islamic mutual funds made forays into the market for socially responsible investments, but those efforts have struggled, partly because of limited distribution channels.
Fund houses from the Gulf and southeast Asia sought to distribute some of their Islamic funds to European investors using UCITS, a "common passport" for investment products, but they have had only mixed success, and a high-volume business has not developed.
The new crossover products are not mutual funds but instruments tailored specifically to invest in a certain type of asset in a specific country or region. They combine Islamic screens - lists of criteria for sharia compliance - with other practices required by sustainable investment firms.
In June, Ontario-based AGInvest Properties developed a sharia-compliant investment product providing ownership of Canadian farmland, supervised by Bahrain-based advisory firm Shariyah Review Bureau (SRB).
The venture would buy prime agricultural land which the firm would manage to ensure sustainability through soil preservation, crop rotation and selection of farm operators, said Robbie Duncan, Dubai-based vice president of AGInvest.
The company, which currently manages 70 million Canadian dollars ($64 million) worth of agricultural land, has begun marketing its sharia-compliant product to investors in the Gulf.
A Saudi firm has expressed interest in setting up a similar fund with AGInvest as adviser, said Duncan, without naming the Saudi firm.
"We have found that three main trends have promoted this agri-business: the need for a stable ethical investment, an investment which promotes and aids the betterment of a community, and the need for food security."
It is the third agriculture-based investment screened by SRB since December, said Yasser Dahlawi, SRB's chief executive.
"There are only finite amounts of agricultural resources available to the Islamic investor community," Dahlawi said.
British-based SCS Farmland is offering a sharia-compliant investment programme for Argentinian farmland, while Hong-Kong based Treedom Group is offering Islamic investors an agarwood venture.
Success for all of these ventures is by no means guaranteed, and it is too early to say whether this form of crossover investing will have more success than the Islamic mutual funds previously marketed in Europe.
One environmentally friendly, sharia-compliant investment project in Britain failed to go through earlier this year.
British-based Islamic financial advisory firm Simply Sharia planned to raise 3 million pounds ($5 million) by the end of June to build a solar energy plant, using tax relief from the government's Enterprise Investment Scheme to create a wakala funding structure.
But the project was unable to reach its funding target by the deadline, partly because as a sharia-compliant structure it could not use leverage like conventional financial products, which limited the returns that could be offered. The project was too small to be financed with sukuk.
"There was a performance differential between conventional solar EIS products (target return 1.15 pounds per pound invested) and the sharia-compliant product (target return of 1.10 pounds per pound invested)," said Anas Hassan, managing director of business finance at Simply Sharia.

"This differential was mainly due to the high level of debt in the structure of the conventional product, whereas the sharia-compliant version was a pure equity play.
(Reuters / 02 September 2014)
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Monday, 1 September 2014

Malaysia: RAM Ratings reaffirms AA1/Stable rating of SEB’s sukuk

KUCHING: RAM Ratings has reaffirmed the AA1/Stable rating of Sarawak Energy Bhd’s (SEB) sukuk musyarakah programme of up to RM15 billion (2011/2036).

According to a press statement, the reaffirmation of the rating reflects the strong support that SEB continues to enjoy from the Sarawak State and Federal Governments, given its pivotal role in the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (SCORE).

RAM viewed that the group to benefit from a “very high” likelihood of support from the Sarawak State Government in the event of financial distress, based on its rating methodology for government-linked entities. Notably, SEB’s financial profile remained in line with the rating agency’s expectations.

The rating is moderated by the group’s weak balance sheet and debt-servicing ability. In line with its hefty capitak expenditure (capex) programme, SEB’s debt load stood at RM6.1 billion as at end-of financial year 2013 (end-FY12 at RM6.28 billion).

“As a result of the lower debt level, SEB’s adjusted gearing ratio improved slightly to 3.44 times (FY12 at 3.71 times) while its adjusted funds from operations debt coverage (FFODC) remained relatively unchanged at 0.07 times (FY12 at 0.06 times).

“Its adjusted gearing ratio is projected to peak at 3.65 times in fiscal 2014 and its adjusted FFODC to improve slightly, averaging around 0.13 times between fiscal 2014 and 2018 as the hroup manages its costs and capex in accordance with its revised expectation of slower pace of customer demand,” it said.

RAM Ratings pointed out, “SEB remains exposed to demand risk, given the progressive take-up of power by SCORE customers relative to its immediate capacity expansion with the Bakun (2,400-MW) and Murum (944-MW) hydro plants.
“We note that a total of 2,100-MW of combined capacity has been met by committed demand from firm SCORE and export customers.”

Elsewhere, it noted SEB is inherently exposed to power-supply concentration risk as about 59 per cent of its current power supply emanates from the Bakun plant, which is owned by the Federal Government (via Sarawak Hidro Sdn Bhd).
“Reliance on Bakun is expected to be moderated when the Murum plant comes onstream in 2015. Any major interruption in power supply could undermine the state’s power system security and pose a challenge to SEB in negotiations with potential SCORE customers.

“However, we draw some comfort to learn that thegroup managed to secure new power purchase agreements and term sheets subsequent to the June 2013 blackout in Sarawak,” it commented.

(Borneo Post Online / 01 September 2014)
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Qatar: Islamic banks outperform conventional peers


DOHA: The Islamic banks in Qatar outpaced conventional banks in the country in terms of growth in net profit during the second quarter of 2014 (Q2,14).

Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) reported a 15.0 percent YoY bottom-line growth in Q2, 14, mainly due to improvement in top-line as well as fee income. Top-line growth was backed by strong financing growth.

Masraf Al Rayan reported 12.1 percent YoY growth in its bottom-line due to strong growth in net financing income,  Global Investment House (GIH) noted in its Q2, 14 “GCC Banking Sector” analysis.

The GIH analysts who covered five major Qatar-based banks   said the loan books of banks in Qatar grew the most in the region, by registering 15.4 percent growth on year-on-year basis, followed by the banks in Saudi Arabia (9 percent), UAE (4.8 percent) and Kuwait (4.6 percent).  

Due to stable growth in loan book, net interest income (NII) of GCC banks rose 4.3 percent YoY. Qatar’s NII grew by 2.9 percent. NII growth was led by UAE-based banks (8.2 percent YoY), followed by those in  Saudi Arabia (7.3 percent. NII of Kuwait declined 6.8 percent.

The asset base of GCC banks expanded by 9.5 percent YoY to $1.11 trillionn in 2Q14, with all the countries witnessing stable YoY growth. Increase in loan book supported the overall asset growth. Qatar-based banks witnessed the strongest growth in total assets (13.9 percent YoY), followed by banks in Kuwait (8.9 percent ), Saudi Arabia (8.7 percent ) and UAE (7.7 percent )

Net earnings of  GCC banks under GIH coverage increased 11.1 percent YoY to $5.3bn in 2Q14, mostly due to higher NII non-interest income and a 7.7 percent YoY drop in provisions;though4.6 percent YoY increase in operating expenses (opex) partially dampened the profit growth. Net profit of banks in the Kuwait and UAE increased by 20.7 percent  and 20.1 percent YoY, respectively while net profit of Saudi Arabia and Qatar based banks increased decently by 7.4 percent and 3.5 percent , respectively.  On QoQ basis,  net profit  of  the GCC aggregate  increased  5.4  percent, with Saudi Arabia and UAE (7.9 percent each) , followed by  Qatar (6.0  percent) ;  while  Kuwait witnessed a 14.9 percent decline in net profit on QoQ basis.

Qatar-based banks maintained their loan growth momentum due to an increase in public sector spending backed by several developmental initiatives taken by the government.

Among Qatar -based banks, Commercial Bank of Qatar, Qatar Islamic Bank and Doha Bank registered higher growth in loan book of 33.4 percent, 31.8 percent and 25.3 percent YoY, respectively.

Provision expenses of  GCC banks under GIH coverage declined 7.7 percent YoY during  Q14; however, increased 14.0 percent QoQ. Banks in Qatar witnessed 21.2 percent YoY plunge in provisions. Provisions of Qatar National Bank reduced by 56.4 percent YoY during the quarter.



(The Peninsula / 31 August 2014)
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Alfalah Consulting - Kuala Lumpur: www.alfalahconsulting.com
Islamic Investment Malaysia: www.islamic-invest-malaysia.com

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